Thought Experiments

A thought experiment is a peek into the counterfactual world

A thought experiment is a device with which one performs an intentional, structured process of intellectual deliberation in order to speculate, within a specifiable [[Problem Solving|problem domain]], about potential consequences (or antecedents) for a designated antecedent (or consequent).

• Thought experiments enable us to explore for the purpose of thinking. They reveal our instinctive knowledge, allow us to predict implications and outcomes, and anticipate problems.
• You have to compare your reasoning to the way you would have reasoned in a counterfactual world, a world in which your motivations were different—would you judge that politician’s actions differently if he was in the opposite party? Would you consider that study’s methodology sound if its conclusion supported your side? Try to actually imagine the counterfactual scenario. Don’t simply formulate a verbal question for yourself. Conjure up the counterfactual world, place yourself in it, and observe your reaction.
• Thought experiments on their own can’t tell you what’s true or fair or what decision you should make. But they allow you to catch your brain in the act of motivated reasoning, and take that into account as you work to figure out what’s true.

Useful Thought Experiments

These thought experiments are useful for evaluating your beliefs and reasoning. They’ll help your [[Thinking]].

• The double standard test. Am I judging one person/group by a standard I wouldn’t apply to another person/group?
• The outsider test. Imagine someone else stepped into your shoes—what do you expect they would do in your situation? Or imagine that you’re an outsider who just magically teleported into your body.
• The conformity test. If other people no longer held this view, would you still hold it?
• The selective skeptic test. Imagine this evidence supported the other side. How credible would you find it then?
• The status quo bias test. Imagine your current situation was no longer the status quo. Would you then actively choose it?

Interesting Thought Experiments

• Experience Machine.
• The iPhone Thought Experiment.
• Cryonics
  • Is like getting to an hospital in the future
  • What if you wake up in a dystopian future?